3.4 Migration and the Demographic Transition

The demographic transition model explains how countries experience different stages of population growth and family sizes, but the model also works well to understand sources and destinations for migrants. Countries that generate many emigrants are likely to be in stages 2 and 3 of the demographic transition (see Figure 3. below), because the large natural increase in population (blue) meant an “oversupply” of laborers in those countries that may need to migrate and seek employment elsewhere.

Countries that are seeking immigrants are likely to be in stages 4 and 5 of the demographic transition, as low fertility in those countries means insufficient workers entering the workforce and a need for foreign laborers.

 Let’s give this a thought. At what age are people most likely to take the risk to move to a completely different country to seek their fortune? Would you move to Slovenia next year, if you could earn triple your current salary? Most international migrants tend to be relatively young (18-35) during the prime of their working years. Countries that tend to have an abundance of working-age people also tend to be early in stage 3 of the model. Countries like Mexico, Guatemala, the Philippines, and India had large families a generation ago. As those children enter their working years, there are not enough jobs created due to an “oversupply” of laborers. Meanwhile, countries in late stage 4 find that because of low fertility rates a generation earlier, the economy now faces a shortage of working-age residents to do all kinds of jobs. Birth rates were high during the 1950’s in the US, but as women had fewer children in subsequent generations, fewer workers were entering the workforce every year. Unsurprisingly, young workers from Mexico, El Salvador, Jamaica, etc., began to immigrate as the demand for their labor increased. In Europe, the same pattern occurred as those from higher fertility countries like Turkey migrated to lower fertility countries like Germany.

Meanwhile, rigid retirement policies in Europe are driving experienced scientists to emigrate to  the U.S.^[1] to start second careers. Many still actively conduct research and are not ready to retire, but mandatory retirement ages (often 65 or younger) at government-run European universities leave them with little choice.