41 US Climate Risks Are Rising – A Scientist Looks at the Dangers Her Children Will Have to Adapt to, from Wildfires to Water Scarcity
Learning Outcomes
- Apply the reading process to “US Climate Risks Are Rising – A Scientist Looks at the Dangers Her Children Will Have to Adapt to, from Wildfires to Water Scarcity.”
- Summarize the article.
- Respond to the article.
- Interview a friend or family member to learn more that person’s experience with climate change.
Preview the Article
Follow the steps below to preview the article “US Climate Risks Are Rising – A Scientist Looks at the Dangers Her Children Will Have to Adapt to, from Wildfires to Water Scarcity.” Ideally, you should print the article and write your responses in the margins of the printed copy. To read more about previewing, visit the chapter on previewing a reading.
- Read the title. What does it make you think about? What do you think the article is about? What questions do you have? Record your predictions and questions on the printed copy of the article next to the title.
- What kinds of environmental changes have you noticed where you live now or in places you lived previously? Record your thoughts in the margins of the printed article.
- Read the first two or three paragraphs. What additional predictions do you now have about the article? What additional questions do you have? Record them on the printed copy of the article.
- Scan the article and notice the headings (e.g. Adapting to a changing world). What additional thoughts or questions do these raise? Record them on the printed copy of the article.
- Scan the bolded and underlined vocabulary in the article. If there are any words that you do not know well, look them up in a print or online dictionary and write some notes about their meanings on the printed copy of the article. Keep in mind that some words have multiple meanings. You may need to read the sentence containing the word to understand the word’s usage. Additionally, this article also makes use of vocabulary specific to environmental science and climate change, such as ecosystem (paragraph 1), tundra (paragraph 2), thermal (paragraph 7), and acidification (paragraph 7). As you use the textbooks in the different courses you are taking, you will notice that much of the new vocabulary you encounter will be subject-specific. Taking the time to learn the vocabulary will improve your understanding of the texts and the course material.
- Based on your preview of the article, what do you think is the central point of the article? (Don’t worry if you are not sure. This is a prediction or guess – you do not have to be correct as long as you are engaging your brain.) Record your prediction on the printed copy of the article.
- Based on your preview, do you predict that the article is narrative, expository, or argumentative?
Read Interactively
Now, read the article using the guidelines from the chapter on reading interactively. As you read, follow these steps to engage with the text.
- Pause to confirm or revise your predictions and to answer the questions you posed while previewing the article. Write down those revised predictions and responses to the questions as you read. If you cannot find the answers to your questions, save them for further research and discussion.
- Pause at other points to check for understanding of what you just read. Can you explain key ideas in your own words yet? If not, reread to clarify. It makes no sense to keep reading if you did not understand something or if you became distracted, which happens to everyone as they read. Ideas that come later in a text build on the previous ones.
- Pay attention to any vocabulary words that are confusing. Look up the words in a dictionary if they are interfering with your understanding, or mark them to return to later.
- Record any opinions or reactions you have to the reading.
- Write down any further questions that develop as you read.
US Climate risks are rising – a scientist looks at the dangers her children will have to adapt to, from wildfires to water scarcity
Erica A.H. Smithwick, Penn State
March 1, 2022
1 When I was a young researcher studying how forested ecosystems recover from wildfire, I brought my 6-month-old daughter with me to Yellowstone National Park. These forests are incredibly resilient to wildfire because they’ve been adapting to it for 10,000 years. Their story of resilience was a hopeful narrative as I began my research career and brought my children into this complex world.
2 Fast forward to today: My daughter is now in college, and we are facing a much different fire regime in a hotter, drier world. In the western U.S., the area burned by wildfires has doubled since the mid-1980s compared to natural levels. Wildfires are now more common, from the tundra to the tropics. And the U.S. is seeing fires year-round.
3 A recent report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that the extent and magnitude of many climate change impacts like wildfires are now larger than previously expected. Some animals and plants are reaching limits in their ability to adapt. Droughts are affecting crop productivity and power generation. Excess heat and flooding are helping diseases to spread in agriculture, wildlife and people. People who work outdoors or live along the coast are especially vulnerable. The social and economic impacts are also growing, with consequences for critical infrastructure, transportation networks, health and food security.
4 I also have a 9-year-old son. According to the IPCC report, his future will include about four times as many extreme events compared to the experience of someone in their 60s today – and that’s if nations reduce fossil fuel use enough to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial times. It’s even more dangerous if they don’t.
Adapting to a changing world
5 The report warns that humanity has a brief but rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future. The risks posed by climate change will be felt differently in different regions, but the most vulnerable people will face the greatest risks.
6 Ensuring that their voices are included in planning and decision-making is a key recommendation. For example, Indigenous peoples are on the frontlines of climate-driven catastrophes and also can be partners in their solutions. In Alaska, where I currently conduct research, sewer systems could be washed out in the next storm, and thawing permafrost is crippling critical underground food storage areas, as well as roads. I’ve seen homes set on coastal cliffs there that are eroding into the sea.
Water and food security
7 In North America, the report describes how the ideal climates for many crops and fisheries are shifting northward, leading to reduced productivity of key crops and livestock. The thermal habitat for salmon and trout may decline 5% to 31%, lobster and crab distributions will shift, and shellfish harvests will decline due to ocean acidification.
8 The impacts vary by region, but research shows climate change has generally slowed the growth in agricultural productivity in North America since 1961, particularly in drought-prone areas. Rising global temperatures are reducing the snowpack that farms and cities rely on for water, and increased groundwater pumping in response is harming access to fresh water in some areas, particularly in the western U.S.
9 Adapting might mean planting different crops or conserving water. On the Colorado River, falling water levels have triggered water use limits agreed to by seven states.
Coastal and urban economies
10 Along U.S. coasts and in urban areas, damage from storms and sea level rise, and disruption of trade and transportation networks, are likely to cause substantial social and economic upheaval, the report says. Up to 99% of coral reefs, which provide natural protection from storms, will be lost by the end of the century in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coasts of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula if temperatures rise just a half-degree Celsius more.
11 There are adaptation techniques other than building sea walls. Green infrastructure, typically vegetation in flood-prone areas, can help manage some floodwater. Some communities are also thinking about managed migration to help move residents out of harm’s way.
12 Another big risk is heat-related deaths and illnesses, particularly among outdoor workers and poor urban residents. How much it increases in the future will depend on how people and countries respond.
Worsening wildfires
13 Last year, I was back in Yellowstone with my 9-year-old son, and I revisited the places I had been as a young researcher. Rather than a scene of resilience, wildfires had returned in just 18 years, burning landscapes that under natural conditions weren’t supposed to burn again for 150 years.
14 What my colleagues and I saw matched what our research was showing: the potential for the Yellowstone landscape to be transformed by fire. It also showed how these changes are less than a lifetime away.
15 As temperatures rise, wildfire frequency is projected to increase about 30% globally by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate. Fires will release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, where it further exacerbates climate change, and they will worsen air quality for billions of people.
16 Strategies exist to help avoid the worst harm. Restoring fire-adapted ecosystems and using forest thinning and prescribed burns, where appropriate, can help prevent megafires. Communities can take steps to reduce the fire risk by building firebreaks and following construction codes.
A window of opportunity
17 The IPCC report concludes that it is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems and that it threatens human well-being. It also reminds us that we can change it for the better.
18 Many reports have described pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reach a “net zero” emissions economy to avoid the worst harm and help communities adapt.
19 We also need to talk about climate change with each other. If people don’t talk about it, they don’t act. A Yale survey shows that 72% of Americans think global warming is happening, but only 35% are talking about it. Talking about climate change with friends, our communities and our children in appropriate ways is critical to sparking action.
Erica A.H. Smithwick, Distinguished Professor of Geography, Penn State
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Reflect
After reading the article, use the following questions to reflect on the content of the article and your reading process. See the chapter about reflecting for a discussion of why this is a crucial step.
- Try to paraphrase the main idea in a sentence. This may be challenging because you have read the article only once. If you are struggling, do your best. You can refine this when you reread and summarize the article.
- Is the article primarily narrative, expository, or argumentative? What is the purpose of the article? In other words, why do you think the author wrote it?
- Which predictions were accurate, and which did you have to revise?
- As you previewed the article, you wrote questions. What questions remain unanswered after reading the article?
- What else do you want to know about the article or topic of the reading? Write down any additional questions.
- How did previewing the article help you to understand and engage with the text while reading?
- Where did you struggle to understand something in the text, and how did you work through it?
- What, if anything, could you have done differently to improve your reading process?
Summarize
Complete a summary of the article by following these steps. Make sure you have read the chapters about Reading to Summarize before proceeding with the summary.
- Reread the article and complete the Summary Notes. See Preparing to Summarize for a review of this topic and an example.
- Then, use your Summary Notes to write a one-paragraph summary of the article. See Writing a Summary for a review of this topic and an example. Make sure that you include in-text citations and the Work Cited.
- Use the self-assessment/peer review questions from Evaluating a Summary to self-assess your summary or invite a peer to provide feedback.
- Use the self-assessment or peer feedback to make changes to your summary.
Make sure you are comfortable with your summary before advancing to the response. If you misunderstand something in the article, then your response may be skewed based on that misunderstanding.
Respond
Write a response to the article by following these steps. Make sure you have read the chapters about Reading to Respond before proceeding with the summary.
- Use the Response Questions from Preparing to Respond to brainstorm possible ideas for your response. See the example in that same chapter.
- Read over your replies to the Response Questions. Choose one idea to write about in your response. Express that idea in a topic sentence. See Writing a Topic Sentence for a Response for examples. Ask a peer for feedback on your topic sentence.
- Brainstorm about possible support you could use in your response. See Generating Support for a Response for examples.
- Use your topic sentence and ideas from the list of support to write a one-paragraph response. See Writing a Response writing guidelines and examples. Make sure that you include the Work Cited and in-text citations for any quotes or specific ideas from the article.
- Use the self-assessment/peer review questions from Evaluating a Response to evaluate your response or have a peer provide feedback.
- Use the self-assessment or peer feedback to make improvements to your response.
Extend: Research
At the beginning of the article, author Erica A. H. Smithwick writes about how the climate changed between the time her daughter was born and the time at which Smithwick wrote this article when her daughter was in college (par. 1-2). At the end of the article, Smithwick states, “We also need to talk about climate change with each other” (par. 19). This is your opportunity to have a conversation with someone about climate change.
Choose a friend or family member who is at least a few decades older than you. Interview the person about the changes observed in the climate during his/her/their lifetime. Write down a list of questions first. Below are some suggestions. Feel free to adapt or add to these.
- Where have you lived during your life?
- What was the climate like when you were a child?
- How has the climate changed between your childhood and now?
- Are you concerned about the changes? If not, why not? If so, what are your most significant concerns about climate change?
Take notes while interviewing the person. You may also record the interview to help you supplement your notes after the interview, but only if the friend or family member gives you permission.
Share your findings with your classmates.